NBA Predictions › Thu, Nov 5, 2026

Heat vs Warriors Prediction, Picks & Odds

The Miami Heat visit the Golden State Warriors on Thu, Nov 5, 2026. Tip-off is 10:00 PM ET. Here is what the MC Sports model makes of it: one moneyline pick, one spread pick, one player prop and a first basket pick, each with the model's own number and FanDuel's price.

Picks at a glance

Moneyline: Warriors (59%)
Spread: Heat +3.5
Player prop: De'Anthony Melton 2+ made threes (-106)
First basket: Bam Adebayo (+490)

⭐ Best bet: De'Anthony Melton 2+ made threes (-106)

Moneyline pick: Golden State Warriors

Warriors MLModel win chance 59.3% at -154 on FanDuel. Projection: GSW by 3.3.

The model makes the Warriors a 59% winner against the Heat. In back-testing, games where the model gave the winner 55%+ won 72.4% of the time. The Heat are on the second night of a back-to-back.

Out tonight: Warriors: Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis, Gui Santos.

Spread pick: Heat +3.5

Heat +3.5 (-110)Model cover chance 50.1%.

FanDuel's spread is Heat +3.5. The model projects the Warriors to win by 3.3 points.

Total: FanDuel's number is 236.5. The model projects 239.3 combined points and leans over (50.4%).

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Player prop pick: De'Anthony Melton 2+ made threes

De'Anthony Melton over 1.5 made threes at -106Projection 2.2 · model hit chance 53.7%.

The model projects De'Anthony Melton for 2.2 made threes on 24 expected minutes, clear of FanDuel's line of 1.5.

🔒 8 more props the model likes in this game
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First basket pick: Bam Adebayo (+490)

Bam Adebayo first basket +490Model chance 17.5% · most likely way: other.

Why: took 30 of his team's first shots in his last 82 starts; 18 first baskets; 20% of the starters' shots; takes the tip. FanDuel settles first basket on the first points of the game, free throws included.

How to use this

These are model picks, not sure things. A 60% pick loses four times in ten. Keep each bet to a small, fixed share of your bankroll (see unit sizing).

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  • 89 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
  • The first basket pick for all 2 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
  • Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 2 games
  • Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg
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