NBA Predictions › Thu, Nov 12, 2026

Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prediction, Picks & Odds

The Dallas Mavericks visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thu, Nov 12, 2026. Tip-off is 8:00 PM ET. Here is what the MC Sports model makes of it: one moneyline pick, one spread pick, one player prop and a first basket pick, each with the model's own number and FanDuel's price.

Picks at a glance

Moneyline: Timberwolves (64%)
Spread: Mavericks +5.5
Player prop: Trey Lyles 6+ points (-106)
First basket: LaMelo Ball (+500)

⭐ Best bet: Trey Lyles 6+ points (-106)

Moneyline pick: Minnesota Timberwolves

Timberwolves MLModel win chance 63.9% at -215 on FanDuel. Projection: MIN by 4.9.

The model makes the Timberwolves a 64% winner against the Mavericks. In back-testing, games where the model gave the winner 60%+ won 76.2% of the time.

Out tonight: Mavericks: Tarik Biberovic, Sergio de Larrea, Dereck Lively II; Timberwolves: Donte DiVincenzo, Anthony Edwards.

Spread pick: Mavericks +5.5

Mavericks +5.5 (-110)Model cover chance 50.1%.

FanDuel's spread is Mavericks +5.5. The model projects the Timberwolves to win by 4.9 points.

Total: FanDuel's number is 226.5. The model projects 226.2 combined points and leans under (50.0%).

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Player prop pick: Trey Lyles 6+ points

Trey Lyles over 5.5 points at -106Projection 7.8 · model hit chance 53.6%.

The model projects Trey Lyles for 7.8 points on 21 expected minutes, clear of FanDuel's line of 5.5.

🔒 4 more props the model likes in this game
  • Points over🔒
  • Points over🔒
  • Points over🔒
  • Rebounds over🔒
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First basket pick: LaMelo Ball (+500)

LaMelo Ball first basket +500Model chance 16.1% · most likely way: 3pt.

Why: took 15 of his team's first shots in his last 63 starts; 9 first baskets; 31% of the starters' shots. FanDuel settles first basket on the first points of the game, free throws included.

How to use this

These are model picks, not sure things. A 60% pick loses four times in ten. Keep each bet to a small, fixed share of your bankroll (see unit sizing).

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  • 155 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
  • The first basket pick for all 4 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
  • Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 4 games
  • Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg
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