NBA First Basket Picks Today: Victor Wembanyama Leads

The first basket model ranks every starter in every NBA game tonight. Here is its top pick for Tue, Oct 27, 2026, worked through the way the model sees it, with every percentage it uses.

Tonight’s top first basket pick

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings, 8:00 PM ET) · model 21.7% · FanDuel +260

✅ FREE PICK HIT: Wembanyama first basket at +260 He scored it on an alley-oop dunk, and a dunk was the model’s #1 way in (dunk first basket was +1200 at FanDuel). The model’s top first basket pick in two more games tonight hit too: Paul George ✅ and Karl-Anthony Towns ✅. Those were Premium only. UPGRADE · 60% OFF →

How the model lands on Victor Wembanyama

Step 1 · The tipHe jumps the tip himself, and the model gives him a 67.6% chance to win it. That makes the Spurs 67.8% to score the game's first points.

Step 2 · Who shoots firstVictor Wembanyama took 19 of his team's first shots in his last 63 starts (31%), with 16 first baskets, and takes 24% of the starters' shots.

Step 3 · How he scores itThe model's most likely way in is a dunk (24.2% of his first baskets). The full split is below, with FanDuel's price on each.

Step 4 · The numberPut together, the model makes Victor Wembanyama 21.7% to score the first basket. FanDuel has him at +260.

How the first basket comes

Method	Model	FanDuel
Dunk	24.2%	+1200
Jumper / floater / hook	22.9%	+1100
3-pointer	21.7%	+1700
Layup	16.5%	+1800
Free throw	14.8%	+2200

The rest of Kings @ Spurs

Player	Model	FanDuel
De'Aaron Fox (Spurs)	12.7%	+650

🔒 First basket picks for the other 3 games

Nets @ Celtics · Celtics 65% to score first🔒
Pistons @ Knicks · Knicks 51% to score first🔒
Blazers @ Lakers · Lakers 57% to score first🔒

Premium members get the model's first basket pick in every game, plus the 4-man first basket parlay.

Unlock every pick: 60% off your first month →

How it has done: back-tested over 1,241 games last season, the first scorer was among the model's top 3 for that game 41.3% of the time, and its 10 highest-rated players each night scored first 15.5% of the time against 9.9% for the field. The team it picked to score first did 56.1% of the time.

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How to use this

First basket is a long shot by nature: even the top pick misses most nights. Keep it to a small, fixed stake (see unit sizing). FanDuel settles it on the first points of the game, free throws included.

← Tonight’s predictions

This page is one pick. Premium is the whole night.

151 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
The first basket pick for all 4 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 4 games
Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg

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