NBA First Basket Picks Today: Donovan Mitchell Leads

The first basket model ranks every starter in every NBA game tonight. Here is its top pick for Thu, Oct 29, 2026, worked through the way the model sees it, with every percentage it uses.

Tonight’s top first basket pick

Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:00 PM ET) · model 14.1% · FanDuel +700

How the model lands on Donovan Mitchell

Step 1 · The tipJarrett Allen jumps for the Cavaliers, and the model gives him a 61.3% chance to win it. That makes the Cavaliers 57.2% to score the game's first points.

Step 2 · Who shoots firstDonovan Mitchell took 19 of his team's first shots in his last 80 starts (24%), with 10 first baskets, and takes 29% of the starters' shots.

Step 3 · How he scores itThe model's most likely way in is a 3-pointer (33.8% of his first baskets). The full split is below, with FanDuel's price on each.

Step 4 · The numberPut together, the model makes Donovan Mitchell 14.1% to score the first basket. FanDuel has him at +700.

How the first basket comes

Method	Model	FanDuel
3-pointer	33.8%	–
Jumper / floater / hook	31.6%	–
Layup	21.5%	–
Free throw	9.9%	–
Dunk	3.2%	–

The rest of Cavaliers @ Hawks

Player	Model	FanDuel
Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)	13.2%	+500
Evan Mobley (Cavaliers)	11.0%	+450

🔒 First basket picks for the other 2 games

Kings @ Pelicans · Pelicans 56% to score first🔒
Grizzlies @ Blazers · Grizzlies 53% to score first🔒

Premium members get the model's first basket pick in every game, plus the 4-man first basket parlay.

Unlock every pick: 60% off your first month →

How it has done: back-tested over 1,241 games last season, the first scorer was among the model's top 3 for that game 41.3% of the time, and its 10 highest-rated players each night scored first 15.5% of the time against 9.9% for the field. The team it picked to score first did 56.1% of the time.

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How to use this

First basket is a long shot by nature: even the top pick misses most nights. Keep it to a small, fixed stake (see unit sizing). FanDuel settles it on the first points of the game, free throws included.

← Tonight’s predictions

This page is one pick. Premium is the whole night.

109 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
The first basket pick for all 3 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 3 games
Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg

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