NBA Predictions › Mon, Nov 2, 2026

NBA First Basket Picks Today: Victor Wembanyama Leads

The first basket model ranks every starter in every NBA game tonight. Here is its top pick for Mon, Nov 2, 2026, worked through the way the model sees it, with every percentage it uses.

Tonight’s top first basket pick

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz, 8:30 PM ET) · model 20.9% · FanDuel +270

How the model lands on Victor Wembanyama

Step 1 · The tipHe jumps the tip himself, and the model gives him a 61.2% chance to win it. That makes the Spurs 63.5% to score the game's first points.
Step 2 · Who shoots firstVictor Wembanyama took 21 of his team's first shots in his last 66 starts (32%), with 17 first baskets, and takes 25% of the starters' shots.
Step 3 · How he scores itThe model's most likely way in is a dunk (25.5% of his first baskets). The full split is below, with FanDuel's price on each.
Step 4 · The numberPut together, the model makes Victor Wembanyama 20.9% to score the first basket. FanDuel has him at +270.

How the first basket comes

MethodModelFanDuel
Dunk25.5%+1200
Jumper / floater / hook22.7%+1200
3-pointer20.9%+1800
Layup16.5%+1900
Free throw14.3%+2200

The rest of Jazz @ Spurs

PlayerModelFanDuel
🔒 First basket picks for the other 14 games
  • Thunder @ Cavaliers · Cavaliers 59% to score first🔒
  • Hawks @ Pacers · Pacers 53% to score first🔒
  • Nets @ Knicks · Knicks 55% to score first🔒
  • Bulls @ 76ers · 76ers 61% to score first🔒
  • Pistons @ Hornets · Pistons 53% to score first🔒
  • Wizards @ Magic · Magic 59% to score first🔒
  • Bucks @ Timberwolves · Timberwolves 63% to score first🔒
  • Pelicans @ Grizzlies · Grizzlies 59% to score first🔒
  • Kings @ Mavericks · Mavericks 53% to score first🔒
  • Celtics @ Rockets · Rockets 51% to score first🔒
  • Blazers @ Nuggets · Nuggets 53% to score first🔒
  • Heat @ Lakers · Lakers 51% to score first🔒
  • Suns @ Warriors · Suns 54% to score first🔒
  • Raptors @ Clippers · Raptors 60% to score first🔒

Premium members get the model's first basket pick in every game, plus the 4-man first basket parlay.

Unlock every pick: 60% off your first month →

How it has done: back-tested over 1,241 games last season, the first scorer was among the model's top 3 for that game 41.3% of the time, and its 10 highest-rated players each night scored first 15.5% of the time against 9.9% for the field. The team it picked to score first did 56.1% of the time.

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How to use this

First basket is a long shot by nature: even the top pick misses most nights. Keep it to a small, fixed stake (see unit sizing). FanDuel settles it on the first points of the game, free throws included.

← Tonight’s predictions

This page is one pick. Premium is the whole night.

  • 217 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
  • The first basket pick for all 15 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
  • Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 15 games
  • Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg
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