NBA First Basket Picks Today: Victor Wembanyama Leads

The first basket model ranks every starter in every NBA game tonight. Here is its top pick for Wed, Nov 4, 2026, worked through the way the model sees it, with every percentage it uses.

Tonight’s top first basket pick

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET) · model 22.1% · FanDuel +250

How the model lands on Victor Wembanyama

Step 1 · The tipHe jumps the tip himself, and the model gives him a 67.4% chance to win it. That makes the Spurs 67.1% to score the game's first points.

Step 2 · Who shoots firstVictor Wembanyama took 21 of his team's first shots in his last 67 starts (32%), with 17 first baskets, and takes 25% of the starters' shots.

Step 3 · How he scores itThe model's most likely way in is a dunk (25.4% of his first baskets). The full split is below, with FanDuel's price on each.

Step 4 · The numberPut together, the model makes Victor Wembanyama 22.1% to score the first basket. FanDuel has him at +250.

How the first basket comes

Method	Model	FanDuel
Dunk	25.4%	–
Jumper / floater / hook	22.6%	–
3-pointer	20.8%	–
Layup	17.0%	–
Free throw	14.3%	–

The rest of Mavericks @ Spurs

Player	Model	FanDuel

🔒 First basket picks for the other 13 games

Hawks @ Wizards · Wizards 51% to score first🔒
76ers @ Pistons · Pistons 50% to score first🔒
Hornets @ Nets · Nets 54% to score first🔒
Bulls @ Knicks · Knicks 59% to score first🔒
Bucks @ Celtics · Celtics 61% to score first🔒
Cavaliers @ Thunder · Cavaliers 56% to score first🔒
Pacers @ Grizzlies · Grizzlies 59% to score first🔒
Jazz @ Pelicans · Jazz 50% to score first🔒
Timberwolves @ Rockets · Timberwolves 51% to score first🔒
Blazers @ Suns · Suns 54% to score first🔒
Raptors @ Nuggets · Nuggets 51% to score first🔒
Lakers @ Kings · Lakers 61% to score first🔒
Heat @ Clippers · Heat 52% to score first🔒

Premium members get the model's first basket pick in every game, plus the 4-man first basket parlay.

Unlock every pick: 60% off your first month →

How it has done: back-tested over 1,241 games last season, the first scorer was among the model's top 3 for that game 41.3% of the time, and its 10 highest-rated players each night scored first 15.5% of the time against 9.9% for the field. The team it picked to score first did 56.1% of the time.

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How to use this

First basket is a long shot by nature: even the top pick misses most nights. Keep it to a small, fixed stake (see unit sizing). FanDuel settles it on the first points of the game, free throws included.

← Tonight’s predictions

This page is one pick. Premium is the whole night.

218 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
The first basket pick for all 14 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 14 games
Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg

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