NBA Predictions › Thu, Nov 5, 2026

NBA First Basket Picks Today: Bam Adebayo Leads

The first basket model ranks every starter in every NBA game tonight. Here is its top pick for Thu, Nov 5, 2026, worked through the way the model sees it, with every percentage it uses.

Tonight’s top first basket pick

Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors, 10:00 PM ET) · model 17.5% · FanDuel +490

How the model lands on Bam Adebayo

Step 1 · The tipHe jumps the tip himself, and the model gives him a 64.4% chance to win it. That makes the Heat 58.6% to score the game's first points.
Step 2 · Who shoots firstBam Adebayo took 30 of his team's first shots in his last 82 starts (37%), with 18 first baskets, and takes 20% of the starters' shots.
Step 3 · How he scores itThe model's most likely way in is a jumper / floater / hook (42.1% of his first baskets). The full split is below, with FanDuel's price on each.
Step 4 · The numberPut together, the model makes Bam Adebayo 17.5% to score the first basket. FanDuel has him at +490.

How the first basket comes

MethodModelFanDuel
Jumper / floater / hook42.1%–
3-pointer20.6%–
Layup14.3%–
Free throw12.1%–
Dunk11.0%–

The rest of Heat @ Warriors

PlayerModelFanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat)12.6%+310
Klay Thompson (Heat)11.5%+1000
Stephen Curry (Warriors)10.3%+800
🔒 First basket picks for the other 1 games
  • Magic @ Suns · Suns 51% to score first🔒

Premium members get the model's first basket pick in every game, plus the 4-man first basket parlay.

Unlock every pick: 60% off your first month →

How it has done: back-tested over 1,241 games last season, the first scorer was among the model's top 3 for that game 41.3% of the time, and its 10 highest-rated players each night scored first 15.5% of the time against 9.9% for the field. The team it picked to score first did 56.1% of the time.

New to Kalshi? Trade $25 and get $55 with code MCBETS.New accounts only · Kalshi terms apply · 18+
CLAIM $55
How to use this

First basket is a long shot by nature: even the top pick misses most nights. Keep it to a small, fixed stake (see unit sizing). FanDuel settles it on the first points of the game, free throws included.

← Tonight’s predictions

This page is one pick. Premium is the whole night.

  • 89 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
  • The first basket pick for all 2 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
  • Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 2 games
  • Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg
Get 60% off →

60% off your first month. Every board, every sport, every night.