NBA First Basket Picks Today: Luka Doncic + LaMelo Ball Parlay

The first basket model ranks every starter in every NBA game tonight. Here are two of its best picks for Fri, Nov 6, 2026, from two different games, worked through the way the model sees them and put together as one parlay.

Tonight’s first basket parlay

Luka Doncic (+360) and LaMelo Ball (+500) · 2 legs, 2 games · +2660 on FanDuel

1. Luka Doncic first basket (+360)

Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers, 10:00 PM ET.

Step 1 · The tipWalker Kessler jumps for the Lakers, and the model gives him a 53.8% chance to win it. That makes the Lakers 55.4% to score the game's first points.

Step 2 · Who shoots firstLuka Doncic took 32 of his team's first shots in his last 70 starts (45%), with 10 first baskets, and takes 33% of the starters' shots.

Step 3 · How he scores itThe model's most likely way in is a jumper / floater / hook (35.5% of his first baskets). The full split is below, with FanDuel's price on each.

Step 4 · The numberPut together, the model makes Luka Doncic 17.2% to score the first basket. FanDuel has him at +360.

Method	Model	FanDuel
Jumper / floater / hook	35.5%	+800
3-pointer	32.5%	+1600
Layup	17.1%	+2700
Free throw	13.8%	+2700
Dunk	1.1%	+25000

2. LaMelo Ball first basket (+500)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans, 8:00 PM ET.

Step 1 · The tipRudy Gobert jumps for the Timberwolves, and the model gives him a 58.5% chance to win it. That makes the Timberwolves 56.1% to score the game's first points.

Step 2 · Who shoots firstLaMelo Ball took 14 of his team's first shots in his last 61 starts (23%), with 8 first baskets, and takes 31% of the starters' shots.

Step 3 · How he scores itThe model's most likely way in is a 3-pointer (49.5% of his first baskets). The full split is below, with FanDuel's price on each.

Step 4 · The numberPut together, the model makes LaMelo Ball 15.2% to score the first basket. FanDuel has him at +500.

Method	Model	FanDuel
3-pointer	49.5%	+1200
Jumper / floater / hook	26.3%	+2000
Layup	14.8%	+3300
Free throw	7.4%	+8000
Dunk	2.0%	+25000

The parlay

Leg	Model	FanDuel
Luka Doncic First basket · Lakers vs Blazers	17%	+360
LaMelo Ball First basket · Timberwolves vs Pelicans	15%	+500

2 legs · +2660 on FanDuel$10 pays $276.00 if every leg hits.

LOAD THE PARLAY IN FANDUEL →

🔒 First basket picks for the other 7 games

Celtics @ Hornets · Hornets 51% to score first🔒
Wizards @ Hawks · Wizards 53% to score first🔒
76ers @ Cavaliers · Cavaliers 58% to score first🔒
Thunder @ Grizzlies · Grizzlies 57% to score first🔒
Raptors @ Bucks · Raptors 60% to score first🔒
Jazz @ Mavericks · Jazz 52% to score first🔒
Spurs @ Kings · Spurs 66% to score first🔒

Premium members get the model's first basket pick in every game, plus the 4-man first basket parlay.

Unlock every pick: 60% off your first month →

How it has done: back-tested over 1,241 games last season, the first scorer was among the model's top 3 for that game 41.3% of the time, and its 10 highest-rated players each night scored first 15.5% of the time against 9.9% for the field. The team it picked to score first did 56.1% of the time.

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How to use this

First basket is a long shot by nature, and a parlay needs both legs. Keep it to a small, fixed stake (see unit sizing). FanDuel settles each leg on the first points of that game, free throws included.

← Tonight’s predictions

This page is one pick. Premium is the whole night.

206 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
The first basket pick for all 9 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 9 games
Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg

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