NBA First Basket Picks Today: Bam Adebayo Leads

The first basket model ranks every starter in every NBA game tonight. Here is its top pick for Tue, Nov 10, 2026, worked through the way the model sees it, with every percentage it uses.

Tonight’s top first basket pick

Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat vs Utah Jazz, 9:00 PM ET) · model 18.3% · FanDuel +500

How the model lands on Bam Adebayo

Step 1 · The tipHe jumps the tip himself, and the model gives him a 58.8% chance to win it. That makes the Heat 57.6% to score the game's first points.

Step 2 · Who shoots firstBam Adebayo took 31 of his team's first shots in his last 84 starts (37%), with 18 first baskets, and takes 22% of the starters' shots.

Step 3 · How he scores itThe model's most likely way in is a jumper / floater / hook (42.6% of his first baskets). The full split is below, with FanDuel's price on each.

Step 4 · The numberPut together, the model makes Bam Adebayo 18.3% to score the first basket. FanDuel has him at +500.

How the first basket comes

Method	Model	FanDuel
Jumper / floater / hook	42.6%	+1300
3-pointer	20.2%	+2200
Layup	14.5%	+3000
Free throw	11.9%	+3300
Dunk	10.8%	+4000

The rest of Heat @ Jazz

Player	Model	FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat)	13.1%	+340

🔒 First basket picks for the other 5 games

Bucks @ Knicks · Knicks 62% to score first🔒
Celtics @ 76ers · 76ers 53% to score first🔒
Clippers @ Suns · Clippers 53% to score first🔒
Magic @ Kings · Magic 59% to score first🔒
Thunder @ Blazers · Blazers 54% to score first🔒

Premium members get the model's first basket pick in every game, plus the 4-man first basket parlay.

Unlock every pick: 60% off your first month →

How it has done: back-tested over 1,241 games last season, the first scorer was among the model's top 3 for that game 41.3% of the time, and its 10 highest-rated players each night scored first 15.5% of the time against 9.9% for the field. The team it picked to score first did 56.1% of the time.

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How to use this

First basket is a long shot by nature: even the top pick misses most nights. Keep it to a small, fixed stake (see unit sizing). FanDuel settles it on the first points of the game, free throws included.

← Tonight’s predictions

This page is one pick. Premium is the whole night.

194 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
The first basket pick for all 6 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 6 games
Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg

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