NBA Predictions › Wed, Nov 11, 2026

NBA First Basket Picks Today: Victor Wembanyama Leads

The first basket model ranks every starter in every NBA game tonight. Here is its top pick for Wed, Nov 11, 2026, worked through the way the model sees it, with every percentage it uses.

Tonight’s top first basket pick

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs vs Chicago Bulls, 8:00 PM ET) · model 22.4% · FanDuel +260

How the model lands on Victor Wembanyama

Step 1 · The tipHe jumps the tip himself, and the model gives him a 69.3% chance to win it. That makes the Spurs 67.1% to score the game's first points.
Step 2 · Who shoots firstVictor Wembanyama took 22 of his team's first shots in his last 71 starts (31%), with 19 first baskets, and takes 25% of the starters' shots.
Step 3 · How he scores itThe model's most likely way in is a dunk (26.3% of his first baskets). The full split is below, with FanDuel's price on each.
Step 4 · The numberPut together, the model makes Victor Wembanyama 22.4% to score the first basket. FanDuel has him at +260.

How the first basket comes

MethodModelFanDuel
Dunk26.3%+1200
Jumper / floater / hook21.7%+1100
3-pointer20.6%+1700
Layup15.9%+1900
Free throw15.5%+2200

The rest of Spurs @ Bulls

PlayerModelFanDuel
🔒 First basket picks for the other 9 games
  • Celtics @ Raptors · Raptors 55% to score first🔒
  • Cavaliers @ Knicks · Cavaliers 55% to score first🔒
  • Wizards @ Pacers · Pacers 53% to score first🔒
  • Nets @ Pelicans · Pelicans 51% to score first🔒
  • Nuggets @ Grizzlies · Grizzlies 54% to score first🔒
  • Lakers @ Bucks · Lakers 56% to score first🔒
  • Magic @ Jazz · Magic 54% to score first🔒
  • Warriors @ Rockets · Rockets 54% to score first🔒
  • Thunder @ Blazers · Blazers 55% to score first🔒

Premium members get the model's first basket pick in every game, plus the 4-man first basket parlay.

Unlock every pick: 60% off your first month →

How it has done: back-tested over 1,241 games last season, the first scorer was among the model's top 3 for that game 41.3% of the time, and its 10 highest-rated players each night scored first 15.5% of the time against 9.9% for the field. The team it picked to score first did 56.1% of the time.

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How to use this

First basket is a long shot by nature: even the top pick misses most nights. Keep it to a small, fixed stake (see unit sizing). FanDuel settles it on the first points of the game, free throws included.

← Tonight’s predictions

This page is one pick. Premium is the whole night.

  • 203 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
  • The first basket pick for all 10 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
  • Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 10 games
  • Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg
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