NBA Predictions › Sat, Nov 14, 2026

NBA First Basket Picks Today: Nikola Jokic Leads

The first basket model ranks every starter in every NBA game tonight. Here is its top pick for Sat, Nov 14, 2026, worked through the way the model sees it, with every percentage it uses.

Tonight’s top first basket pick

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans, 7:00 PM ET) · model 19.2% · FanDuel +470

How the model lands on Nikola Jokic

Step 1 · The tipHe jumps the tip himself, and the model gives him a 60.9% chance to win it. That makes the Nuggets 59.7% to score the game's first points.
Step 2 · Who shoots firstNikola Jokic took 22 of his team's first shots in his last 84 starts (26%), with 11 first baskets, and takes 26% of the starters' shots.
Step 3 · How he scores itThe model's most likely way in is a jumper / floater / hook (46.0% of his first baskets). The full split is below, with FanDuel's price on each.
Step 4 · The numberPut together, the model makes Nikola Jokic 19.2% to score the first basket. FanDuel has him at +470.

How the first basket comes

MethodModelFanDuel
Jumper / floater / hook46.0%+950
Layup28.5%+2000
3-pointer14.1%+3000
Free throw7.5%+4000
Dunk3.9%+15000

The rest of Nuggets @ Pelicans

PlayerModelFanDuel
Jamal Murray (Nuggets)14.2%+390
🔒 First basket picks for the other 4 games
  • Mavericks @ Cavaliers · Cavaliers 64% to score first🔒
  • Nets @ Grizzlies · Grizzlies 62% to score first🔒
  • Bulls @ Timberwolves · Timberwolves 64% to score first🔒
  • Pistons @ Heat · Heat 57% to score first🔒

Premium members get the model's first basket pick in every game, plus the 4-man first basket parlay.

Unlock every pick: 60% off your first month →

How it has done: back-tested over 1,241 games last season, the first scorer was among the model's top 3 for that game 41.3% of the time, and its 10 highest-rated players each night scored first 15.5% of the time against 9.9% for the field. The team it picked to score first did 56.1% of the time.

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How to use this

First basket is a long shot by nature: even the top pick misses most nights. Keep it to a small, fixed stake (see unit sizing). FanDuel settles it on the first points of the game, free throws included.

← Tonight’s predictions

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This page is one pick. Premium is the whole night.

  • 162 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
  • The first basket pick for all 5 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
  • Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 5 games
  • Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg
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