NBA Predictions › Sat, Nov 14, 2026

Nuggets vs Pelicans Prediction, Picks & Odds

The Denver Nuggets visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Sat, Nov 14, 2026. Tip-off is 7:00 PM ET. Here is what the MC Sports model makes of it: one moneyline pick, one spread pick, one player prop and a first basket pick, each with the model's own number and FanDuel's price.

Picks at a glance

Moneyline: Nuggets (73%)
Spread: Pelicans +12.5
Player prop: Christian Braun 12+ points (-122)
First basket: Nikola Jokic (+470)

⭐ Best bet: Christian Braun 12+ points (-122)

Moneyline pick: Denver Nuggets

Nuggets MLModel win chance 73.0% at -620 on FanDuel. Projection: DEN by 8.5.

The model makes the Nuggets a 73% winner against the Pelicans. In back-testing, games where the model gave the winner 70%+ won 82.6% of the time. The Pelicans are on the second night of a back-to-back.

Out tonight: Nuggets: Julian Strawther; Pelicans: Bryce McGowens, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, Trendon Watford.

Spread pick: Pelicans +12.5

Pelicans +12.5 (-114)Model cover chance 51.0%.

FanDuel's spread is Pelicans +12.5. The model projects the Nuggets to win by -8.5 points.

Total: FanDuel's number is 235.5. The model projects 234.8 combined points and leans under (50.1%).

New to Kalshi? Trade $25 and get $55 with code MCBETS.New accounts only · Kalshi terms apply · 18+
CLAIM $55

Player prop pick: Christian Braun 12+ points

Christian Braun over 11.5 points at -122Projection 13.2 · model hit chance 54.3%.

The model projects Christian Braun for 13.2 points on 34 expected minutes, clear of FanDuel's line of 11.5.

🔒 8 more props the model likes in this game
  • Points over🔒
  • Points over🔒
  • Points over🔒
  • Points over🔒
  • Points over🔒
Unlock every pick: 60% off your first month →

First basket pick: Nikola Jokic (+470)

Nikola Jokic first basket +470Model chance 19.2% · most likely way: other.

Why: took 22 of his team's first shots in his last 84 starts; 11 first baskets; 26% of the starters' shots; takes the tip. FanDuel settles first basket on the first points of the game, free throws included.

How to use this

These are model picks, not sure things. A 60% pick loses four times in ten. Keep each bet to a small, fixed share of your bankroll (see unit sizing).

← Every game tonight

More free tools: NBA Defense vs Position · NFL Defense vs Position

This page is one pick. Premium is the whole night.

  • 162 player props with the model's projection and hit chance
  • The first basket pick for all 5 games, with the tip-off and method numbers
  • Projected winners, spreads and totals for all 5 games
  • Ask MC: build a parlay off the models, with the model's chance on every leg
Get 60% off →

60% off your first month. Every board, every sport, every night.