+EV Betting
+EV means positive expected value: the price you are getting is better than the real chance of the bet winning. Over enough bets, that is the only kind that makes money.
The idea
- +EV: the odds pay more than the true probability deserves. You have the edge.
- −EV: the odds pay less than the true probability deserves. The book has the edge.
The formula
EV = (win chance × profit if it wins) − (lose chance × stake)
A coin flip at +110(0.5 × $110) − (0.5 × $100) = +$5 per
$100 bet. You are paid more than a fair coin deserves.
The same flip at -120(0.5 × $83.33) − (0.5 × $100) =
−$8.33 per $100. Same coin, worse price, losing bet.
A gameYou make a team a 58% winner and the book has them at -110, which
implies 52.4%.
(0.58 × $100) − (0.42 × $110) = +$11.80 per $110 staked, about +10.7%.
(0.58 × $100) − (0.42 × $110) = +$11.80 per $110 staked, about +10.7%.
The mindset
A +EV bet at 58% still loses 42% of the time. You will lose plenty of good bets, and that is normal. The goal is not to win tonight; it is to keep making bets where the price is in your favor, so that over hundreds of them the math does its work.
The two levers are your probability estimate and the price you get. The second one is the easiest to improve: see line shopping.
Key takeaways
- Compare your win probability with the probability the odds imply.
- Only bet when yours is higher.
- Judge yourself on hundreds of bets, never on one night.
Use it on the boards
Put it to work
The MC Sports model boards rank every player and game, every game day, and show the numbers behind each score.
See the model boards →