NRFI Picks

NRFI means No Run First Inning: the bet wins if neither team scores in the first. The board gives a side on every game of the day, NRFI or YRFI, and shows why.

What goes into it

A first inning is about 30 innings a season for one pitcher, too few to say much on its own. So the model reads the first three innings, when a starter goes through the order for the first time:

• for both starters, how many men reach base, hits and runs allowed;
• for both lineups, the same numbers from the batting side;
• every rate pulled toward the league average until the sample is big enough to trust, and adjusted for the ballpark.

What's on the board

The pick and its confidence for every game. Open one and it shows the first inning only, the inning you're betting: each starter's scoreless-first record, men on, hits and runs per first, and each team's first-inning scoring and recent form.

How it was tested

Walked forward through past seasons, never tested on games it was fitted on, the model's three strongest picks a day landed 53.8% of the time against a base rate of 50.8%. Books know NRFI is popular and shade its price, so check what you are paying.

Open today's NRFI Picks board →