Anytime TD Picks
Over weeks 1-8, 52% of the players the model ranked scored a touchdown, against 22% of every player who touched the ball.
Every board is graded every morning, wins and losses. Here is each model's record and its latest finished slate, read straight from the graded results.
Over weeks 1-8, 52% of the players the model ranked scored a touchdown, against 22% of every player who touched the ball.
57-46-4 against the spread this season (55.3%; break-even at -110 is 52.4%).
| Game | Pick | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@GB | CAR +3.5 | 19-27 | L |
| Bet | Game | Pick | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BAY@UCF | BAY +1 | 41-9 | W |
| Spread | OKST@ISU | ISU +9 | 49-51 | W |
| Spread | PUR@PSU | PSU -7.5 | 17-31 | W |
| Spread | NW@ORE | ORE -3.5 | 26-34 | W |
| Spread | UVA@WAKE | UVA +13.5 | 7-51 | L |
| Spread | WIS@IOWA | IOWA -3.5 | 0-30 | W |
| Spread | ARIZ@TTU | TTU -3.5 | 26-34 | W |
| Spread | NEV@UCLA | NEV +23 | 0-27 | L |
| Spread | ASU@BYU | ASU +16 | 20-27 | W |
| Spread | MIZZ@ARK | ARK +10 | 34-10 | L |
| Spread | MINN@IND | IND -21 | 16-23 | L |
| Spread | CLEM@FSU | CLEM +6 | 36-24 | W |
| Spread | MICH@RUTG | RUTG +14 | 28-21 | W |
| Spread | BC@DUKE | DUKE -7 | 2-47 | W |
| Spread | ND@NAVY | NAVY +30.5 | 35-13 | W |
| Spread | KSU@COLO | KSU -1.5 | 24-27 | L |
| Spread | STAN@LOU | LOU -22.5 | 24-52 | W |
| Spread | ILL@MD | ILL -2.5 | 20-17 | W |
| Spread | OSU@USC | OSU -6.5 | 18-30 | L |
| Spread | MSST@TEX | MSST +20.5 | 3-31 | L |
| Spread | CAL@NCST | NCST -7 | 10-31 | W |
| Spread | MIA@UNC | MIA -15 | 38-35 | L |
| Spread | KU@TCU | TCU -5.5 | 16-22 | W |
| Spread | UTAH@CIN | UTAH -6.5 | 49-25 | W |
| Spread | AUB@MISS | MISS -13 | 15-45 | W |
| Spread | FLA@UGA | FLA +11.5 | 8-27 | L |
| Spread | UW@NEB | UW +7.5 | 17-10 | W |
| Spread | GT@PITT | GT +7.5 | 11-34 | L |
| Spread | SMU@SYR | SMU -10 | 27-30 | L |
| Spread | SCAR@OU | SCAR +5 | 42-25 | W |
| Winner | BAY@UCF | UCF | 41-9 | L |
| Winner | PUR@PSU | PSU | 17-31 | W |
| Winner | NW@ORE | ORE | 26-34 | W |
| Winner | MIA@UNC | MIA | 38-35 | W |
| Winner | OKST@ISU | ISU | 49-51 | W |
| Winner | AUB@MISS | MISS | 15-45 | W |
| Winner | WIS@IOWA | IOWA | 0-30 | W |
| Winner | BC@DUKE | DUKE | 2-47 | W |
| Winner | ARIZ@TTU | TTU | 26-34 | W |
| Winner | SMU@SYR | SMU | 27-30 | L |
| Winner | FLA@UGA | UGA | 8-27 | W |
| Winner | OSU@USC | OSU | 18-30 | L |
| Winner | MICH@RUTG | MICH | 28-21 | W |
| Winner | CAL@NCST | NCST | 10-31 | W |
| Winner | UTAH@CIN | UTAH | 49-25 | W |
| Winner | GT@PITT | PITT | 11-34 | W |
| Winner | UW@NEB | NEB | 17-10 | L |
| Winner | KU@TCU | TCU | 16-22 | W |
| Winner | ILL@MD | ILL | 20-17 | W |
| Winner | SCAR@OU | OU | 42-25 | L |
| Winner | KSU@COLO | KSU | 24-27 | L |
| Winner | MIZZ@ARK | MIZZ | 34-10 | W |
| Winner | UVA@WAKE | WAKE | 7-51 | W |
| Winner | CLEM@FSU | FSU | 36-24 | L |
Over 33 nights, the model's top 10 skaters a night scored 34% of the time, against 15% for every skater.
| Rank | Skater | Team | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 94 | Scored |
| 2 | Macklin Celebrini | SJS | 91 | No goal |
| 3 | Auston Matthews | TOR | 89 | Scored |
| 4 | Brandon Hagel | TBL | 86 | No goal |
| 5 | Connor McDavid | EDM | 84 | No goal |
| 6 | Jason Robertson | DAL | 84 | No goal |
| 7 | Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 83 | No goal |
| 8 | David Pastrnak | BOS | 83 | Scored |
| 9 | Bo Horvat | NYI | 82 | No goal |
| 10 | Artemi Panarin | LAK | 82 | No goal |
| 11 | Alex DeBrincat | DET | 81 | No goal |
| 12 | Cole Caufield | MTL | 81 | No goal |
| 13 | Nikita Kucherov | TBL | 79 | No goal |
| 14 | Tage Thompson | BUF | 79 | Scored |
| 15 | William Nylander | TOR | 78 | Scored |
| 16 | Jake Guentzel | TBL | 77 | Scored |
| 17 | Martin Necas | COL | 75 | Scored |
| 19 | Tim Stützle | OTT | 72 | Scored |
| 20 | Wyatt Johnston | DAL | 72 | No goal |
Over 33 nights, the top 10 for points got a point 56% of the time (every player: 35%); the top 10 for shots cleared their shots line 49% of the time (every player: 21%).
| Sheet | Rank | Player | Team | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | Connor McDavid | EDM | Over 1.5 | 1 | |
| Points | 2 | Nathan MacKinnon | COL | Over 1.5 | 2 | |
| Points | 3 | Macklin Celebrini | SJS | Over 1.5 | 0 | |
| Points | 4 | Nikita Kucherov | TBL | Over 1.5 | 3 | |
| Points | 5 | Leon Draisaitl | EDM | Over 1.5 | 2 | |
| Points | 6 | David Pastrnak | BOS | Over 1.5 | 1 | |
| Points | 7 | Martin Necas | COL | Over 1.5 | 2 | |
| Points | 8 | Auston Matthews | TOR | Over 1.5 | 1 | |
| Points | 9 | William Nylander | TOR | Over 1.5 | 2 | |
| Points | 10 | Artemi Panarin | LAK | Over 0.5 | 0 | |
| Shots on goal | 1 | Nathan MacKinnon | COL | Over 3.5 | 5 | |
| Shots on goal | 2 | Brandon Hagel | TBL | Over 3.5 | 3 | |
| Shots on goal | 3 | Macklin Celebrini | SJS | Over 2.5 | 2 | |
| Shots on goal | 4 | David Pastrnak | BOS | Over 3.5 | 4 | |
| Shots on goal | 5 | Jason Robertson | DAL | Over 3.5 | 1 | |
| Shots on goal | 6 | Alex DeBrincat | DET | Over 3.5 | 3 | |
| Shots on goal | 7 | Tage Thompson | BUF | Over 3.5 | 8 | |
| Shots on goal | 8 | Auston Matthews | TOR | Over 3.5 | 2 | |
| Shots on goal | 9 | Bo Horvat | NYI | Over 2.5 | 3 | |
| Shots on goal | 10 | Artemi Panarin | LAK | Over 2.5 | 3 | |
| Saves | 2 | Joel Hofer | STL | Over 26.5 | 24 | |
| Saves | 5 | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | Over 26.5 | 27 | |
| Saves | 9 | Ilya Sorokin | NYI | Over 26.5 | 20 | |
| Saves | 10 | Tristan Jarry | EDM | Over 26.5 | 18 | |
| Saves | 11 | Jet Greaves | CBJ | Over 26.5 | 14 |
| Game | Pick | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LAK | BUF | 3-2 | Won |
| CBJ@DAL | DAL | 1-3 | Won |
| CGY@COL | COL | 2-5 | Won |
| CHI@BOS | BOS | 4-5 | Won |
| EDM@NYI | NYI | 4-0 | Lost |
| OTT@SJS | OTT | 5-1 | Won |
| PIT@MTL | MTL | 4-5 | Won |
| STL@DET | DET | 5-4 | Lost |
| TBL@NSH | TBL | 4-5 | Lost |
| TOR@VAN | TOR | 4-2 | Won |
| Game | Pick | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@BOS | Under 6.5 | 4-5 | L |
| STL@DET | Over 5.5 | 5-4 | W |
| TBL@NSH | Under 6.5 | 4-4 SO | L |
| EDM@NYI | Under 6.5 | 4-0 | W |
| BUF@LAK | Over 5.5 | 3-2 | L |
| OTT@SJS | Under 6.5 | 5-1 | W |
| PIT@MTL | Over 6.5 | 4-5 | W |
| TOR@VAN | Over 6.5 | 4-2 | L |
| CBJ@DAL | Under 5.5 | 1-3 | W |
| CGY@COL | Over 6.5 | 2-5 | W |
Across 35 slates, 11.4% of the hitters on the model's board homered, against 9.2% of every hitter who played.
| Game | Pick | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL@TB | MIL | 4-1 | Won |
| Bet | Match | Pick | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CHE@EVE | EVE +0.5 | 2-0 | L |
| Spread | LIV@BRE | LIV +0.5 | 2-1 | W |
| Spread | HUL@FUL | FUL -0.5 | 0-1 | W |
| Spread | IPS@MCI | MCI -1.5 | 2-3 | L |
| Spread | AVL@NEW | AVL +0.5 | 1-0 | W |
| Spread | SUN@BOU | SUN +0.5 | 0-2 | L |
| Spread | CRY@BHA | CRY +1.5 | 0-5 | L |
| Spread | MUN@LEE | MUN +0.5 | 1-1 | W |
| Spread | ARS@NFO | ARS -0.5 | 1-0 | W |
| Spread | COV@TOT | COV +1.5 | 1-3 | L |
| Total | CHE@EVE | Over 2.5 | 2-0 | L |
| Total | LIV@BRE | Over 2.5 | 2-1 | W |
| Total | HUL@FUL | Over 2.5 | 0-1 | L |
| Total | IPS@MCI | Over 3.5 | 2-3 | W |
| Total | AVL@NEW | Under 3.5 | 1-0 | W |
| Total | SUN@BOU | Over 2.5 | 0-2 | L |
| Total | CRY@BHA | Under 3.5 | 0-5 | L |
| Total | MUN@LEE | Over 2.5 | 1-1 | L |
| Total | ARS@NFO | Over 2.5 | 1-0 | L |
| Total | COV@TOT | Over 2.5 | 1-3 | W |
Past results don’t guarantee future wins. Model chances are estimates; any pick can lose.