NFL Picks Against the Spread

Three sheets for every game on the NFL slate: the side against the spread, the projected winner, and the total.

Against the spread

A pick on every game, from a model built on each team's opponent-adjusted offense and defense (EPA per play) and how it has done against the number, with the spread and total as inputs. It was chosen on older seasons and then tested once on 2021 to 2025, seasons it never saw.

Projected winners

A winner and win probability for every game, from team strength and the quarterback, allowed to see the market's price. Use it as a projected-winners sheet and for parlay legs: picking winners is not the same as beating the moneyline.

Totals

An over or under on every game. Outdoors, when the forecast wind at kickoff is 8 mph or more, the pick is the under, the one angle that held up in season after season of testing. A pick can flip during the week if the forecast moves across that line.

The record

The board carries its walk-forward record and the live record for this season, graded every week.

Open today's NFL ATS, Winners and Totals board →