MLB Moneyline Picks

The winners sheet picks a side in every game on the slate and puts a win probability on it, with FanDuel's moneyline alongside.

What goes into it

• The two starting pitchers. When a starter has too little history to rate, an opener or a call-up, the sheet uses his club's runs allowed a game instead and marks the row.
• Each club's run scoring and run prevention this season.

How to read it

The win probability is the useful number. Compare it with the probability the moneyline implies: a team the model makes a 58% winner at -150 (60% implied) is not the same bet as the same team at -120 (54.5%). The odds lesson shows how to convert a price, and the Kelly lesson how to size from it.

Picking winners is not the same as beating the price: favorites win most games, and the price already says so. Use it as a projected-winners sheet and for parlay legs.

Open today's Moneyline Picks board →