MLB Home Run Picks
The HR model ranks every hitter on the day's slate for a home run and scores each one out of 100. Open any name and the board shows the numbers behind the score.
What goes into the score
- The opposing starter. How often he gives up home runs is the biggest single piece of the score.
- The hitter's power: isolated power, barrel rate and average exit velocity, from Statcast batted-ball data.
- The ballpark: a three-year park factor, keyed to the venue the game is actually played in.
- The platoon matchup: a left-handed hitter against a right-handed starter, or the other way round.
What's on the board
Top 20 HR ProjectionsThe slate's 20 highest scores, with FanDuel's home run
and 2+ home run prices beside each name when they are posted.
HR Game MatchupsEvery game, with the best home run candidates on each side.
Pitcher TargetsThe day's starters most likely to give up a home run, so you can
see who is facing them.
How to use it
Home run props pay long odds and miss often, even for the best hitter on the board. Keep stakes small and treat a home run parlay as a long shot, not a plan. Prices differ a lot between books on home run props, so check more than one.
Open today's Home Run Picks board →
Learn how to bet it
More from the models
Open the Home Run Picks board
The live board updates every game day. Open any name to see the numbers behind its score.
See today's board →