NFL Player Props

Five prop sheets, one per market, each ranking the week's players and setting them against the line FanDuel has posted.

The five markets

• Passing yards and passing touchdowns
• Rushing yards
• Receptions and receiving yards

Every row carries FanDuel's posted line and price. Four of the five also open onto the alternate ladder, every rung with its own price.

What goes into it

Each market has its own model, fitted on play-by-play from 2021 on: the player's own usage, how much of his team's work he gets, and the defense he faces. Target share, the steadiest number in football, drives the receiving sheets. Two checks keep the wrong players off: a quarterback has to be the starter, and every player has to be getting real playing time this season.

How it was tested

Each model was scored on games it was not fitted on, against a simple baseline of the player's own average. The board prints how well each market ranks, and some rank much better than others.

Open today's NFL Player Props board →