NFL Hit Rate Report
The Hit Rate Report shows, for every NFL player with a prop this week, how often he has gone over each line: in his last 5 games, his last 10 and this season.
What's on the report
MatrixEvery player down the side and a ladder of lines across the top: yards,
receptions, touchdowns. Each cell is how often he has cleared that line, shaded from green to black.
Best linesThe lines with the highest hit rates this week, filtered to 100% or 80%
and up, by market and by game.
The matchupBeside each line, how the defense he faces ranks against that stat:
green for the 10 that allow the most, yellow for the middle, red for the 10 that allow the least.
The priceFanDuel's price for each line, including the alternate lines, so a high
hit rate can be read against what it pays.
How to read it
A hit rate is history, not a forecast. A receiver who has gone over 40 yards in 10 straight games has earned a look, but the book has seen the same games, so the alternate line is usually priced short. Check the matchup and injury news, and read the rate against the price. Stringing several high hit rates together in a parlay multiplies the risk: the parlays lesson works through the math.
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Learn how to bet it
More from the models
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The live board updates every game day. Open any name to see the numbers behind its score.
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