NBA Moneyline Picks

The winners sheet picks a side in every NBA game tonight and puts a win probability on it, with FanDuel's moneyline alongside.

What goes into it

• Each team's offensive and defensive ratings, pulled toward last season early in the year
• Who is playing tonight, from the injury report
• Recent form, rest and back-to-backs
• Home court

How it was tested

On the 2025-26 season, with the model fitted only on the seasons before it, its pick won 68.9% of 1,241 games. The more confident it was, the more often it was right: games it rated 60% or more went its way 76.2% of the time (803 games), and 70% or more went 82.6% (478 games).

The betting favourite wins about as often, so use the probability against the price. A team the model makes a 70% winner is a fair bet near -233 and a poor one at -350. The odds lesson shows how to do that conversion.

Open today's NBA Moneyline Picks board →