Premier League Picks
Every Premier League matchweek, three sheets cover every fixture: who wins, the handicap, and over or under 2.5 goals.
How it works
- A scoring rate for each club from goals and shots on target, adjusted for the opposition, with recent matches counting more.
- Elo ratings, and a correction for how often low-scoring results really happen.
- Blended with FanDuel's prices, so all three sheets come off one set of scoreline chances.
What's on the board
WinnersHome, draw or away, with the model's chance for each.
SpreadThe Asian handicap side, on matches where FanDuel has hung a line.
TotalsOver or under 2.5 goals.
How it was tested
Walked through 2010 to 2026, the winners sheet's picks sorted by confidence: 50%+ picks won 64% of the time and 60%+ picks 71%, with a draw counted as a miss. Those are hit rates, not profit: the model leans on the market's price, and says so.
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More from the models
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The live board updates every game day. Open any name to see the numbers behind its score.
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